Trump’s Great Divorce

This morning, President Trump escalated economic warfare, imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports and increasing tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 20%. In retaliation, Canada has announced $155 billion in counter-tariffs, and China is targeting U.S. agricultural exports. Global markets plunged amid fears of an escalating trade war.

But this is bigger than just tariffs.

The economic fracture mirrors the ideological split ripping through the Western world. As nationalist, populist leaders gain power across Hungary, Italy, the U.S., and beyond, the old post-WWII liberal consensus is breaking apart. This isn’t just political polarization—this is a Great Divorce.

A Counter-Reformation for the 21st Century

History rarely repeats itself, but it often rhymes. The Western world is undergoing a seismic transformation akin to the Counter-Reformation, the 16th-century Catholic response to the Protestant Reformation.

• The Reformation (liberal democracy today) shattered the old religious order, just as globalization, multiculturalism, and progressive governance have reshaped the modern West.

• The Counter-Reformation (modern reactionary nationalism) was an aggressive attempt to reassert central control, enforce ideological purity, and suppress change—just as today’s reactionary movements push against pluralism, open borders, and international institutions.

• The Catholic Church of the 16th century turned to Jesuits, the Inquisition, and centralized dogma—today’s nationalist movements turn to strongmen, protectionism, and state-controlled narratives to fight back.

The result? A West that no longer speaks the same ideological language.

The New Reactionary Bloc: Hungary, Italy, Russia, and the U.S.

The Western world is no longer a unified front. Instead, we see two competing factions forming—liberal democracies versus nationalist reactionaries.

• Hungary & Russia: Viktor Orbán openly obstructs EU policies on Ukraine, aligning with Putin’s anti-globalist vision and advocating for a new, nationalist Europe.

• Italy: Giorgia Meloni attempts to balance nationalist rhetoric with EU pragmatism, much like 16th-century Catholic rulers who sought to preserve their faith while navigating shifting political alliances.

• United States: Trump’s reemergence threatens NATO itself. His latest encounter of Zelenskyy, where he and VP JD Vance openly questioned U.S. support for Ukraine, is a clear departure from post-WWII Western unity. (Source: The Guardian)

Much like the Counter-Reformation sought to reassert control over religious doctrine, today’s reactionary bloc seeks to reassert control over global institutions (or no control), national identity, and economic policy.

The Fragmentation of the West: A Permanent Divorce

This is not a temporary cycle—it’s a structural rupture. The Great Divorce is unfolding on three critical fronts:

1. Institutional Breakdown – NATO, the EU, and the G7 face internal sabotage from nationalist leaders who see these alliances as obsolete or oppressive. Trump’s suggestion that the U.S. may abandon NATO allies signals a fundamental rethinking of Western security.

2. Economic Decoupling – The Western economy is diverging into two camps—one embracing globalization, the other retreating into protectionism. Trump’s tariffs accelerate this divide.

3. Cultural Warfare – Reactionary leaders frame pluralism, immigration, and international cooperation as threats to national identity—mirroring how the Catholic Church framed Protestantism as a heresy to be eradicated.

The Fallout: A New Global Order?

Unlike the Cold War, where the West presented a unified front against communism, today’s fractured West lacks a common vision. This weakens the ability to counter China, Russia, and other rising powers.

• EU Dilemma – With Hungary obstructing Ukraine aid and the U.S. in turmoil, the EU may be forced to militarize independently for the first time.

• NATO Under Siege – If Trump fully abandons NATO, Eastern Europe loses its security umbrella overnight.

• Emerging Alliances – France and Germany could form a separate European bloc, independent of U.S. influence—much like the Protestant states that broke away from Catholic dominance.

Conclusion: The West is Breaking in Two

Just as the Counter-Reformation ultimately failed to stop the rise of Protestantism, today’s nationalist movements will not halt globalization or demographic shifts. However, the battle will reshape the West permanently.

The old order is over.

The West is not just fracturing—it is divorcing, permanently.

The only question left is: who gets the kids?